سال‌های 96 و 97 زمان بازگشت رونق به بازار مسکن

قیمت مسکن دیگر کاهش نمی یابد.

مولف کتاب تحلیل بازار مسکن و مدرس دانشگاه با تاکید بر اینکه سال 95 زمان مناسبی برای شروع ساخت و ساز و خرید مسکن است، گفت: دیگر شاهد کاهش قیمت در بازار مسکن نخواهیم بود در سال های 96 و 97 رونق دوباره به این بازار برمی گردد.

به گزارش پایگاه خبری اقتصاد بازار، بهروز ملکی در همایش چشم انداز و تحلیل بازار مسکن در سال 95 و 96، با اشاره به اهمیت بخش مسکن در اقتصاد خانواده، اظهار داشت: 33 درصد هزینه هر خانوار و همچنین 40 درصد سرمایه گذاری های کشور در حوزه مسکن انجام می شود.

به گفته وی، نرخ رشد متوسط دارایی های ایرانی ها طی 24 سال گذشته در بورس 25 درصد، در مسکن 24 درصد و در نهایت در بخش دلار 15 درصد بوده است.

وی افزود: از 360 قلم کالا و خدماتی که ایرانی ها در ماه مصرف می کنند، 33 درصد آن در بخش مسکن، 25 درصد در خوراکی ها و آشامیدنی ها و 10 درصد در حمل و نقل هزینه می شود.

مشاور اقتصادی و سرمایه گذاری شرکت های بخش خصوصی با بیان اینکه از اوایل تا اواخر دهه 70، هزینه مسکن هر خانوار ایرانی 26 درصد بود، تاکید کرد: به مرور مسکن سهم بیشتری از هزینه خانوار را به خود اختصاص داد.

به گفته وی، ایران جزو پنج کشور دنیاست که مسکن، سهم بالایی از درآمد خانوار را به خود اختصاص داده است.

ملکی افزود: براساس اطلاعات بانک مرکزی در سال 93، سهم هزینه مسکن در استان تهران با 50 درصد و در استان اصفهان 32 درصد است همچنین ایلام با 16 درصد کمترین هزینه مسکن را به خود اختصاص داده است.

وی همچنین در خصوص نحوه تصرف خانوارهای ایرانی در مسکن، گفت: طی سال های 65 تا 90، ایرانی ها بیشتر اجاره نشین شده اند.

مولف کتاب تحلیل بازار مسکن و مدرس دانشگاه تصریح کرد: در ایران به طور متوسط 30 سال طول می کشد که هر خانوار بتواند خانه دار شد.

وی با اشاره به اینکه حدود 20 میلیون واحد مسکونی در حال استفاده در کشور وجود دارد که شاخص تراکم آن 1.06 درصد است، بیان داشت: حدود 8 درصد خانه های کشور خالی هستند.

ملکی با بیان اینکه در استان اصفهان به ازای هر 100 واحد مسکونی 105 خانوار وجود دارد، گفت: طی سال های 95 تا 1405 ، به شرطی که هر سال 900 هزار واحد مسکونی ساخته شود به 10 میلیون واحد مسکونی نیاز داریم؛ از سوی دیگر شاهد کمبود 900 هزار واحد مسکونی در کشور هستیم و سالی 35 میلیون واحد تخریب و نوسازی می شود.

وی به متوسط قیمت معاملات یک متر مربع مسکن در شهرهای مختلف کشور اشاره کرد و افزود: استان تهران با 4 میلیون و 100 هزار تومان گران ترین مسکن کشور و اصفهان با 2 میلیون و 800 هزار تومان در رده دوم قرار دارد.

به گفته این استاد دانشگاه، طی سال های 71 تا 94 نرخ رشد مسکن در اصفهان 104 برابر شده است.

وی همچنین با اشاره به موضوع مالیات بر خانه های خالی که قانون آن در سال 95 برای اجرا ابلاغ شد، گفت: تا سال 1380 قانون مالیات بر خانه های خالی اجرا می شد اما به دلیل مشکلات در شناسایی این خانه ها این قانون از سوی سازمان امور مالیاتی لغو شد.

به گفته ملکی، شناسایی خانه های خالی بزرگترین مشکل این قانون است که علیرغم تصویب دوباره آن، همچنان در اجرا دچار ضعیف هستیم.

وی در خصوص تاثیر مسکن مهر بر بازار کشور، تاکید کرد: مشکل مسکن مهر همچنان پابرجاست و پاره ای از مشکلات آن به دولت بعدی نیز انتقال می یابد.

به گفته این استاد دانشگاه، متاسفانه 40 درصد پایه پولی و نقدینگی کشور از طریق مسکن مهر در دولت قبلی ایجاد شد.

وی در ادامه با اشاره به عوامل اثرگذار در قیمت مسکن، اظهار داشت: نقدینگی و تورم، درآمد پس انداز خانوار، وام خرید مسکن، هزینه ساخت، مالیات املاک، هزینه ساخت، قیمت بنزین و گازوئیل، درآمدهای نفتی، نرخ سود بانکی، عرضه زمین و مسکن دولتی و … از جمله عوامل اثرگذار بر قیمت مسکن است.

به گفته ملکی، نرخ سود بانکی مهمترین عاملی است که خلاف جهت مسکن حرکت می کند.

وی همچنین با اشاره به اینکه سال های 86، 87، 91 اوج افزایش قیمت مسکن در کشور بود، تصریح کرد: طول دوره رونق مسکن همیشه کوتاه تر از دوره رکود آن در کشور بوده است.

مولف کتاب تحلیل بازار مسکن گفت: با افزایش قیمت مسکن، سود ساخت و ساز در کشور زیاد می شود بنابراین درخواست برای پروانه ساختمان افزایش می یابد که این موجب افزایش با وقفه عرضه مسکن می شود که در این شرایط افزایش قیمت مسکن متوقف و در این چرخه شاهد کاهش سود ساخت و ساز و کاهش درخواست برای پروانه ساختمان می شویم.

وی با اشاره به اینکه طی سال های 93 و 94 صدور پروانه ساختمان در کشور کاهش یافته است، گفت: در حال حاضر، زمان مناسبی برای خرید مسکن نیست.

به گفته ملکی، بهترین زمان برای ساخت مسکن، اواخر دوره رکود است و همچنین اوایل دوره رونق زمانی مناسب برای خرید و پایان دوره رونق زمان مناسب فروش مسکن است.

وی با اشاره به اینکه طی سال های 90 و 91 شاهد رونق بازار مسکن بودیم، افزود: بازار مسکن از نیمه دوم سال 92 دچار رکود شد و امروز انتظار داریم بازار مسکن به سمت پایان رکود حرکت کند.

این استاد دانشگاه همچنین به متوسط ماهانه پروانه واحدهای مسکونی در کشور اشاره کرد و بیان داشت: در سال 91 حدود 60 هزار واحد مسکونی، در سال 92 معادل 55 هزار واحد مسکونی، در سال 93 برابر با 32 هزار واحد مسکونی و در سال 94 معادل 27 هزار واحد مسکونی پروانه صادر شده است.

به گفته ملکی، ساخت و ساز در کشور در سال 94 به نصف سال 91 رسیده است.

وی با بیان اینکه در اصفهان نیز پروانه های ساختمان در سال های 91 و 92 افزایش داشته اما در سال 93 و 9 ماه نخست سال 94 کاهش داشته است، افزود: تعداد پروانه های ساختمان در اصفهان طی زمستان 94 رشد داشته است.

مولف کتاب تحلیل بازار مسکن در ادامه به مهمترین عواملی که موجب رکود طولانی در بازار مسکن شده، اشاره کرد و گفت: افت قدرت خرید مردم، نرخ بالای سود بانکی، حجم بالای پروانه های ساختمانی طی سال های 90 تا 93 و کاهش قیمت نفت از جمله این عوامل است.

وی همچنین به مهمترین عوامل موثر بر رشد قیمت مسکن در سال 95 اشاره کرد و افزود: کاهش سود سپرده های بانکی، حجم بالای پروانه های ساختمانی طی سال های 91 و 92 و رو به اتمام بودن واحدهای نیمه تمام، درآمدهای خانوار و رشد اقتصادی در سال جاری، پس انداز خانوارها ناشی از رشد اقتصادی سال های قبل، افزایش بهای وام های ساختمانی، افزایش درآمدهای نفتی در سال جاری و حرکت آن به سمت بازار مسکن، بهره برداری از واحدهای مسکن مهر از جمله این عوامل هستند.

ملکی با پیش بینی بازار مسکن طی سال جاری، تاکید کرد: دولت امسال پروژه جدیدی در بخش مسکن نخواهد داشت همچنین نقش دولت در مسکن از نوع سیاست گذاری و نهادسازی است به گونه ای که بخش خصوصی باید وارد ساخت و ساز شود.

وی تصریح کرد: هر چه به سمت سال های 96 و 97 حرکت کنیم ثبات قیمت مسکن توجیه خود را از دست می دهد.

این استاد دانشگاه، با تاکید بر اینکه سال 95 زمان مناسبی برای شروع ساخت و ساز و خرید مسکن است، گفت: به طور قطع قیمت مسکن رشد ملایمی خواهد داشت اما این رشد دو رقمی نخواهد شد.

به گفته وی، بازار مسکن به مرور وارد دوره گذار از رونق می شود و در سال های 96 و 97 رونق دوباره به بازار مسکن بازمی گردد.

وی تاکید کرد: دیگر شاهد کاهش قیمت در بازار مسکن نخواهیم بود و امسال نیز رشد بالایی را تجربه خواهد کرد و امیدواریم سال آینده رونق در این بازار شکل بگیرد.

وی همچنین بیان داشت: در سال 96 شاهد رشد قیمت، پروانه و اجاره در بخش مسکن خواهیم بود.

مطالب مرتبط

  • 88
    یک مشاور و تحلیلگر ارشد در امور سرمایه‌گذاری با اشاره به اینکه قیمت مسکن در سال ۹۶ و ۹۷ رشدی در حدود تورم یا کمتر از آن خواهد داشت، تاکید کرد: مسکن بازار جذابی برای سرمایه‌گذاری در دو سال آتی نیست. به گزارش اقتصاد آنلاین، سیدمحمدصادق الحسینی در همایش دورنمای اقتصاد…
  • 85
    فایل‌های فروش آپارتمان نوساز در بازار مسکن منطقه یک پایتخت فراوان شد. بازار فروش واحدهای مسکونی نوساز در منطقه یک تهران که دست‌کم طی سه سال اخیر در رکود عمیق فرو رفته بود، هم‌اکنون موج تازه‌ای از عرضه آپارتمان‌های کلیدنخورده را آغاز کرده است. طوری که در حال‌حاضر اغلب فایل‌های…
  • 85
    بررسی دو شاخص صدور پروانه‌های ساختمانی با معاملات انجام شده نشان می‌دهد در بازار مسکن عرضه به یک سوم تقاضا رسیده است. هم اکنون در ازای صدور یک پروانه ساختمانی سه معامله در شهر تهران انجام می‌شود. همچنین طی سه دهه اخیر کاهش صدور پروانه‌های ساختمانی در سیکل دو یا…
  • 83
    پیش‌بینی کارشناسان و صاحبنظران حوزه مسکن نشان می‌دهد انتخابات سال آینده مقطع حساس و سرنوشت سازی برای بازار مسکن است.  محمد فیروزی؛ به گزارش خبرنگار اقتصاد آنلاین، مدت بیش از 3 سال است که بازار مسکن در رکود به سر می برد، در سال گذشته هم با وجود مثبت شدن…
  • 83
    مشاوران املاک در مناطق مختلف شهر تهران عنوان می‌کنند در حال حاضر به دلیل نزدیک شدن به ماه‌های پایانی سال برخی فروشندگان حاضر در بازار با هدف تبدیل به احسن کردن ملک خود حاضر به ارائه تخفیف به خریداران هستند از این رو خریدارانی که با بودجه اندک تمایل به…

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  148. Have you ever considered writing an e-book or guest authoring on other blogs? I have a blog centered on the same topics you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my viewers would value your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free to send me an e-mail.

  149. Today, I went to the beachfront with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!

  150. Hi there! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could locate a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having problems finding one? Thanks a lot!

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  180. Hi! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog. Is it very hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about creating my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any tips or suggestions? With thanks

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  188. Hi there this is somewhat of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding experience so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  189. Hey there! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could locate a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having difficulty finding one? Thanks a lot!

  190. I am curious to find out what blog system you have been using? I’m experiencing some small security problems with my latest blog and I would like to find something more safeguarded. Do you have any suggestions?

  191. Hi there! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having problems finding one? Thanks a lot!

  192. First off I would like to say wonderful blog! I had a quick question that I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was curious to know how you center yourself and clear your head prior to writing. I have had a difficult time clearing my mind in getting my thoughts out there. I truly do enjoy writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are generally wasted just trying to figure out how to begin. Any ideas or hints? Kudos!

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  220. Wonderful blog! Do you have any suggestions for aspiring writers? I’m hoping to start my own blog soon but I’m a little lost on everything. Would you propose starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so many options out there that I’m totally confused .. Any recommendations? Thanks a lot!

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  250. With havin so much content and articles do you ever run into any issues of plagorism or copyright infringement? My site has a lot of unique content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it appears a lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my permission. Do you know any solutions to help prevent content from being ripped off? I’d definitely appreciate it.

  251. Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your article seem to be running off the screen in Internet explorer. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with web browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The style and design look great though! Hope you get the problem solved soon. Kudos

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  253. Whats up are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and set up my own. Do you require any coding knowledge to make your own blog? Any help would be really appreciated!

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