بررسی اثر کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت متفاوت جهش قیمت دلار

بازتاب تلاطم ارزی در بازار مسکن

افزایش قیمت دلار در هفته های اخیر موجب شده تا میزان اثر آن بر قیمت مسکن در آینده به دغدغه ای برای کسانی تبدیل شود که در ماه های پیش رو قصد خرید دارند. مبهم ماندن پاسخ این سوال می تواند به عقبگرد معاملات آپارتمان از فضای شکننده پیش‌رونق منجر شود. با این حال افزایش قیمت دلار در بلند مدت و کوتاه مدت ، دو اثر معکوس بر بازار مسکن دارد.

به گزارش اقتصادنیوز ، بررسی‌های مستند به سه پژوهش علمی درباره «معادله ارز در بازار مسکن»، در پاسخ به ابهام موجود در این بازار نشان می‌دهد افزایش قیمت دلار برحسب دامنه رشد و مدت زمان صعود، دو تاثیر «کوتا‌ه‌مدت به شکل معکوس» و «بلند‌مدت به شکل مستقیم» بر متغیرهای بازار ملک از جمله قیمت مسکن دارد. رشد مثبت قیمت دلار در کوتاه‌مدت، اثر روانی بر رفتار تقاضا در بازار مسکن می‌گذارد و باعث جذب تقاضای سرمایه‌ای توسط بازار ارز و در نتیجه، «تضعیف» زمینه سفته‌بازی در معاملات ملک می‌شود. این رابطه در مقطع فعلی که احتمال ورود تقاضای سرمایه‌ای به بازار خرید آپارتمان‌های کوچک –به‌دلیل سطح مناسب قیمت‌ها- وجود دارد، می‌تواند به نفع خریداران مصرفی آپارتمان تمام شود. با این حال، تاثیر بلندمدت و واقعی رشد قیمت دلار در بازار مسکن، از محل «ساخت و ساز» و به شکل اثر مثبت بر «قیمت تمام شده مسکن»‌ ظاهر می‌شود. کارشناسان در عین حال تاکید می‌کنند اثرپذیری مسکن از نوسانات ارز، خفیف و جزئی خواهد بود.

تحقیقات انجام شده توسط تیمور رحمانی اقتصاددان و پژوهشگر بازار مسکن درباره نحوه اثرگذاری بازار ارز بر بازار مسکن حاکی است در اقتصاد ایران، نرخ ارز حقیقی به‌عنوان یک جانشین برای بازدهی مسکن عمل می‏کند. یعنی با افزایش عایدی نرخ ارز و بازار ارز، مردم به دادوستد ارز روی خواهند آورد. بنابراین با افزایش بازدهی ارز، تقاضا برای مسکن کاهش خواهد یافت. در نتیجه این امر، قیمت مسکن کاهش خواهد یافت. از طرف دیگر نرخ ارز می‏تواند بر هزینه کالاها و خدمات مورد نیاز ساخت مسکن نیز تاثیرگذار باشد. به این ترتیب با افزایش نرخ ارز، هزینه ساخت مسکن افزایش خواهد یافت. در نهایت این افزایش هزینه باعث افزایش قیمت مسکن خواهد شد.

از طرفی، ‏ نتایج یک تحقیق دانشگاهی که اخیرا در فصلنامه اقتصاد مسکن به چاپ رسیده، نشان می‌دهد: یک واحد شوک مثبت در شاخص قیمت دلار، در کوتاه‏مدت تاثیر منفی بر قیمت مسکن دارد و باعث کاهش شاخص قیمت مسکن می‏شود. چرا که با افزایش نرخ ارز، حجم تولید برای صادرات، افزایش پیدا می‏کند و سرمایه‏ها به سمت بخش صنعت و تولید متمایل می‏شود اما در بلندمدت با توجه به رابطه پسین و پیشین بخش‏های مختلف، رونق کلی اقتصاد به بخش مسکن نیز تسری پیدا می‏کند و منجر به افزایش شاخص قیمت مسکن خواهد شد.

در این تحقیق، اثر متفاوت نوسانات ارزی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت بر بازار مسکن، مورد تاکید قرار گرفته است. با این حال درباره اثر واقعی و بلندمدت افزایش قیمت ارز بر بازار ملک، یک پژوهش سوم نیز از سوی گروه دانشگاهی انجام شده که جزئیات آن –که در فصلنامه اقتصاد مسکن منتشر شده است- مشخص می‌کند: افزایش قیمت ارز به میزان یک درصد در بازار غیررسمی نیز به علت تاثیر دوگانه بر جذب سرمایه‏های مولد بخش مسکن و همچنین اثر تورمی بر هزینه‏های ساخت، باعث می‏شود احتمال بروز رونق در این بخش 013/ 0 درصد کاهش یابد.

روند جهش قیمت مسکن و قیمت ارز طی 25 سال گذشته مشخص می‌کند جهش قیمت اسمی مسکن حداقل یک سال بعد از جهش قیمت ارز اتفاق افتاده است که البته، تحولات ارزی، عامل اصلی یا وزنه قوی برای تورم مسکن نبوده است بلکه، مطابق یافته‌های پژوهشگران، سهم مشخصی در افزایش قیمت تمام شده مسکن داشته است و در عین حال، در دوره کاهش قیمت ارز، باعث حرکت تقاضای سرمایه‌گذاری به سمت بازار ملک شده است. در سال 75، رشد 67 درصدی قیمت مسکن بعد از افزایش 52 درصدی قیمت ارز در سال 74، ‏ رقم خورد. همچنین رشد دست کم 40 درصدی قیمت مسکن در اوایل دهه 80 بعد از رشد 34 درصدی قیمت ارز در سال 78، به ثبت رسید. اما در سال 91، به‌واسطه شوک ارزی ناشی از پایان دوره کنترل قیمت ارز و همچنین تبعات سیاست‌های رشد نقدینگی و چاپ پول، قیمت ارز 116 درصد نسبت به سال قبل از آن جهش کرد. در این سال، اوج رونق معاملات مسکن نیز وجود داشت و قیمت مسکن نیز جهش 45 درصدی را تجربه کرد.

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منبع:اقتصاد نیوز

مطالب مرتبط

  • 83
    نظر مشاورین املاک در خصوص بازار مسکن در شب عید چیست؟ 50 نفر مشاور املاک تهران، از مناطق 22 گانه شهر تهران در نظرسنجی ،وضعیت بازار مسکن در شب عید، شرکت کردند. قیمت مسکن اخیرا ثبات خوبی دارد و همه اطلاعات و داده ها نشان از ورود این  بازار به فاز پیش…
  • 80
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  • 77
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    بازار مسکن در ماه انتخابات،‌ مطابق برآوردها و آنچه پیش‌تر در جریان تحقیقات میدانی، تا حدودی نمایان شده بود،‌ در مسیر پیش‌رونق معاملات، بدون آنکه به عقب برگردد،‌ با تحرک خفیف اما رو به جلو، مواجه شد. در این مقاله شما مطالبی راجع به برآیند کلی وضعیت مسکن در حال…
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    زمان مناسب برای تقاضا در بازار مسکن فرارسیده است. بر طبق گزارشات و سیگنال هایی که این روزها بازار مسکن از خود نشان می دهد می توان گفت زمان خوبی برای تقاضا در بازار به وجود آمده است.به این معنی که خریداران مسکن با توجه به قیمت آن راحت تر…

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  185. With havin so much written content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright infringement? My site has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either authored myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my authorization. Do you know any techniques to help prevent content from being stolen? I’d truly appreciate it.

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  205. With havin so much written content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright violation? My site has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it seems a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my permission. Do you know any techniques to help prevent content from being stolen? I’d really appreciate it.

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  239. With havin so much written content do you ever run into any issues of plagorism or copyright violation? My website has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either authored myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my authorization. Do you know any techniques to help reduce content from being stolen? I’d certainly appreciate it.

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  243. Hi there! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Thanks!

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  249. Hi there! I realize this is kind of off-topic however I had to ask. Does building a well-established blog like yours require a massive amount work? I’m completely new to blogging but I do write in my journal everyday. I’d like to start a blog so I can share my personal experience and feelings online. Please let me know if you have any ideas or tips for new aspiring blog owners. Thankyou!

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  252. Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  256. Hey there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing months of hard work due to no back up. Do you have any methods to prevent hackers?

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  276. With havin so much content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright infringement? My blog has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it appears a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my authorization. Do you know any solutions to help stop content from being ripped off? I’d really appreciate it.

  277. Hi! This is kind of off topic but I need some guidance from an established blog. Is it hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about making my own but I’m not sure where to start. Do you have any tips or suggestions? Many thanks

  278. Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

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  281. Woah! I’m really digging the template/theme of this blog. It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s difficult to get that “perfect balance” between user friendliness and appearance. I must say that you’ve done a very good job with this. Also, the blog loads extremely fast for me on Safari. Superb Blog!

  282. I was wondering if you ever thought of changing the structure of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1 or two pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

  283. First of all I would like to say awesome blog! I had a quick question that I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to find out how you center yourself and clear your head before writing. I’ve had a tough time clearing my mind in getting my ideas out there. I do take pleasure in writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are usually wasted simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any recommendations or hints? Cheers!

  284. I’m truly enjoying the design and layout of your blog. It’s a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more pleasant for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out a developer to create your theme? Outstanding work!

  285. Hey there! I understand this is kind of off-topic but I had to ask. Does running a well-established blog such as yours require a massive amount work? I am completely new to writing a blog but I do write in my journal on a daily basis. I’d like to start a blog so I can share my experience and feelings online. Please let me know if you have any kind of recommendations or tips for brand new aspiring blog owners. Appreciate it!

  286. I was wondering if you ever considered changing the layout of your website? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1 or 2 images. Maybe you could space it out better?

  287. Hello this is kinda of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding knowledge so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  288. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is required to get setup? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100% sure. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Cheers

  289. It’s a shame you don’t have a donate button! I’d without a doubt donate to this outstanding blog! I guess for now i’ll settle for book-marking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to new updates and will share this site with my Facebook group. Chat soon!

  290. Hey! I know this is kinda off topic however , I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest authoring a blog post or vice-versa? My website addresses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I feel we could greatly benefit from each other. If you are interested feel free to shoot me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Awesome blog by the way!

  291. My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the costs. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on a variety of websites for about a year and am concerned about switching to another platform. I have heard good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress posts into it? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  292. Today, while I was at work, my sister stole my iphone and tested to see if it can survive a forty foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is completely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  293. Please let me know if you’re looking for a author for your blog. You have some really great articles and I believe I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d love to write some content for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine. Please blast me an e-mail if interested. Cheers!

  294. Howdy! Quick question that’s totally off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My weblog looks weird when viewing from my iphone4. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to resolve this issue. If you have any suggestions, please share. Many thanks!

  295. I do accept as true with all of the ideas you’ve offered on your post. They are really convincing and can certainly work. Still, the posts are too brief for newbies. May you please lengthen them a bit from next time? Thanks for the post.

  296. Hi! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting fed up of WordPress because I’ve had problems with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be awesome if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

  297. I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz answer back as I’m looking to create my own blog and would like to find out where u got this from. appreciate it

  298. Hey there great blog! Does running a blog similar to this take a great deal of work? I have virtually no expertise in coding but I had been hoping to start my own blog in the near future. Anyways, should you have any ideas or techniques for new blog owners please share. I know this is off subject nevertheless I simply had to ask. Thank you!

  299. Hey! This is kind of off topic but I need some guidance from an established blog. Is it tough to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty fast. I’m thinking about making my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any points or suggestions? Thank you

  300. Howdy! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this website? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

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  302. I am really enjoying the theme/design of your website. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility problems? A couple of my blog visitors have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Chrome. Do you have any recommendations to help fix this issue?

  303. First of all I would like to say wonderful blog! I had a quick question that I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to know how you center yourself and clear your thoughts prior to writing. I have had a tough time clearing my mind in getting my ideas out. I truly do take pleasure in writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are generally wasted just trying to figure out how to begin. Any suggestions or tips? Many thanks!

  304. Hmm it appears like your blog ate my first comment (it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I had written and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I as well am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to the whole thing. Do you have any recommendations for rookie blog writers? I’d definitely appreciate it.

  305. Hey there, I think your site might be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your blog site in Ie, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, wonderful blog!

  306. I absolutely love your blog and find most of your post’s to be just what I’m looking for. Does one offer guest writers to write content for you? I wouldn’t mind composing a post or elaborating on a lot of the subjects you write in relation to here. Again, awesome website!

  307. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You definitely know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us something enlightening to read?

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  309. First of all I want to say superb blog! I had a quick question which I’d like to ask if you don’t mind. I was curious to find out how you center yourself and clear your thoughts before writing. I’ve had a hard time clearing my thoughts in getting my thoughts out there. I truly do take pleasure in writing however it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes tend to be wasted just trying to figure out how to begin. Any recommendations or hints? Many thanks!

  310. Good day! This is kind of off topic but I need some guidance from an established blog. Is it hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about creating my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any ideas or suggestions? Appreciate it

  311. Hi there would you mind letting me know which webhost you’re utilizing? I’ve loaded your blog in 3 completely different browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot quicker then most. Can you recommend a good web hosting provider at a honest price? Many thanks, I appreciate it!

  312. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

  313. Hey there! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this website? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had issues with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be fantastic if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

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